SG OwnBlog

 Defense Without Strategy Ukraine seems to be hell bent on fighting a static war without almost any flexibility. Their forces may be valiant and defiant, but without a coherent strategy, the best they can hope for is to prolong their own suffering WITHOUT significantly hurting the enemy. Here is how the situation stands as of now. Kherson has fallen. The front in the South was decisively broken day before yesterday with the capture of the railway station and port. Naturally, the Russian forces did not wait and moved straight North to Mykolaiv. All UA forces on the Dnepr facing South are likely to be outflanked. Unless the Russian spearheads are cut off and destroyed in a day or two, it will be too late. The fall of the entire South seems to be inevitable.  To extricate the forces, UA should have withdrawn forces from other sectors (including far away Donetsk front). Now, the best they can try is to win time to reinforce Kyiv. Kharkov is almost surrounded. This battle seems to ...

From a glance at the map and the news reports, it appears that the Russian advance has been very slow or even checked. However, a deeper look shows the situation has worsened significantly for Ukraine. That this happened as per my expectation in the past few posts makes me feel worse. In the North, the Russian forces have already encircled Chernihiv in the past couple of days. This is not yet fully updated on this map. The two strong armored spearheads from Konotop (which had also fallen) are currently holding in Pryluky and Nizhyn. The Chernihiv garrison probably has a day or two before the Russians reach Kozelets. Then any breakout attempt to Kyiv will become extremely difficult and will likely result in very heavy losses. It is to be expected that this city too, will fall soon without affecting the battle of Kyiv. This is bad for Ukraine. Now that the International Community has rallied for Ukraine, the previous fears of Russia dealing with breakaway republics in the East should be ...

The media has been reporting massive Ukrainian victories and impending Russian defeat. The talks have also been cancelled, neither side could agree on the conditions and location. Russia has in the meantime put its nuclear arsenal on alert. Below is however the frontline as it stands roughly. Kyiv Front As we can see from the map, the situation is actually worsening for Ukraine and pretty quickly. While the latest attacks on Kharkiv were beaten back and most of the city retaken by ZSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces), Kyiv is being encircled slowly but surely. The North was the first to fall and rapidly. A direct assault to occupy the city failed yesterday, and it seems a further reinforced assault also failed to breach the city defences. In fact, some of the supply convoys were attacked further slowing the Russian advance. However, if we look at the map, it is clear that the Russians are simply encircling the capital. The road to Korosten is in Russian hands, the road to Zhytomyr is being thr...

Russian Armed Forces have continued their invasion of Ukraine over the past couple of days. The first operations had begun from the bridgeheads claimed by separatist forces in the so called Donets,  Luhansk People's Republic and the Crimean People's Republic. I will not go into detail comparing the tactical or operational situation. That requires a more serious study. Also, the information coming from the media sources is fairly limited and often contradictory - so drawing the proper conclusions is difficult. However, the overall strategic situation is a lot clearer . The image below shows the current frontline. The major problem is that such a solid frontline beyond these lines do not exist. There have been saboteurs who have been found operating significantly deeper inside Ukrainian territories. But these are roughly the lines where the major conventional forces stand. Ukrainian Mistakes before the invasion Intelligence Failure There have been some failings from the Ukrainian...